About: Eric Basmajian

Eric Basmajian

#1 Read Economics Contributor on Seeking Alpha

Eric Basmajian is a contributing analyst to FATRADER focusing on macro trends. Marrying a diverse background, with a degree in economics and experience at a quantitative hedge fund, Eric has developed a unique methodology to forecast major economic inflection points.

Eric started his career on the buy-side of the financial sector, as an analyst with Panorama Partners, a quantitative hedge fund specializing in algorithmically scanning for mispriced equity derivatives. Armed with a degree in economics from New York University and statistical knowledge from his hedge fund experience, Eric has developed a unique strategy for modeling economic trends. He provides macroeconomic research that spans three distinct time durations. With a focus on the 12-36 month growth rate cycle, the 6-10 year business cycle and the 10+ year secular forces that drive economies, Eric provides some of the most comprehensive coverage of macro trends available.

This strictly data-driven approach to economic analysis has allowed Eric to become the #1 read Economics contributor on Seeking Alpha.

Story Archive

Business Cycle Update

In this note we look at the business cycle and analyze the major coincident data points of the US economy, and also ask: Can the economy slip into recession even if housing data remains "strong?"
By Eric Basmajian

Why This Slowdown Carries Elevated Risks

As the fourth quarter gets off to a rocky start, the consensus narrative is fully aware of the ongoing slowdown in global manufacturing that began over 20 months ago and is warming to the idea that the manufacturing malaise has spread to the services sector.
By Eric Basmajian

Inflation Cycle Downturn

The headline metrics from the Producer Price Index report, released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, continued to highlight a deceleration in the rate of inflation while the more cyclical sub-components suggest downside pressure has not yet eased.
By Eric Basmajian

The Industrial Slowdown Continues Into September

Industrial activity in the United States continued on a downward path through the end of August with industrial production growth falling to a 31-month low.
By Eric Basmajian

A Downshift In Employment Growth

The employment situation report for August confirmed that the US economy has downshifted, experiencing decelerating rates of growth, which has translated to a significant slowdown in labor market growth.
By Eric Basmajian

Yield Curve Inversions Deepen

As the inflation cycle downturn and the growth rate cycle downturn persist, with the Fed seemingly unwilling to guide towards a more aggressive rate-cutting path, yield curve inversions have intensified.
By Eric Basmajian

Employment Report: Under The Hood

The employment report released last Friday showed material weakness behind the headline addition of 164,000 jobs.
By Eric Basmajian

When Will Lower Mortgage Rates Lift The Housing Market?

Today's data on newly constructed single-family home sales was, on balance, weaker than expectations. Despite lower mortgage rates, the housing market is struggling to gain traction, decelerating on a trending basis across most categories including building permits, and new home sales to name a couple.
By Eric Basmajian

Building Permits Tumble In June - Are The Low Interest Rates Helping?

The housing starts and building permits report is one of my favorite data points on the housing market and can also be one of the earliest leading indicators in the economy.
By Eric Basmajian

Home Prices In "Correction" Territory?

Earlier today, two notable housing data points crossed the tape, namely the Case-Shiller Home Price Index "HPI" and the report on New Single-Family Home Sales "NHS". The national HPI reading showed home price growth decelerating yet again to a rate of 3.54% year over year.
By Eric Basmajian

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