About: Jeff Miller

Jeff Miller

"The Man Who Called Dow 20,000" --CNBC

Jeffrey Miller is a contributing analyst at FATRADER providing economic analysis as well as market forecasts. Through his years of experience in trading options, futures, and equities, as well as in quantitative modeling, Jeff has come to be regarded as an expert on economics, market reaction to news events, and computer-based trading.

Jeff is renowned as "The Man Who Called Dow 20,000," as CNBC referred to him in a December 2016 interview. The Dow at the time was just reaching the milestone Jeff predicted back in 2010 when the index was only at 10,000.

Jeff holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Michigan. A former college professor, he taught advanced research methods at the University of Wisconsin, where his quantitative modeling and analysis of tax policy helped inform state and local officials in Wisconsin for more than a decade.

Jeff started off in the financial business in 1987 as research director for a trading firm at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. He investigated anomalies in the standard option pricing models and developed new forecasting techniques. Merging these quantitative techniques with specific company analysis, Jeff also generated trading ideas from sell-side analyst reports.

In 1991 Jeff established a general research consultancy, undertaking projects in both financial futures and options with professional traders at all of the Chicago financial exchanges.

In 1998 he started NewArc Investments, Inc., where he currently manages both individual and institutional investments. He is also occasionally an expert witness in legal cases involving financial markets and hedging.

Jeff has authored a series of papers on investment management, describing both quantitative methods and those related to behavioral economics. A widely followed financial columnist, he has been featured on TheStreet's Real Money, Yahoo Finance, and Seeking Alpha, where he is consistently ranked among the top 3 contributors for Economics.

Story Archive

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Trade War Update

The daily tweeting and trade news have figured prominently in recent market action.
by Jeff Miller - 4 days ago

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Economic Impact of a Tariff Increase

What is the impact of a US tariff hike on China? Here is one estimate of the effects.
by Jeff Miller - 2 weeks ago

Tariff News - Market Analysis on May 5th, 2019

President Trump tweeted plans to proceed with the increase of tariffs on Chinese imports from 10% to 25% -- supposedly on Friday.
by Jeff Miller - 2 weeks ago

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What Is A Good Trade?

The popular perception is that a good trade is one where your purchase goes up after a buy and down after a sale.
by Jeff Miller - 2 weeks ago

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Employment Report -- Early Take

My early look at the employment report suggests that, while good, it is not as good as the headline number suggests.
by Jeff Miller - 2 weeks ago

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FOMC Meeting Reaction

Investors would do better to ignore the small changes in possible Fed policy. Spend your time finding stocks that do well in a solid economy with low interest rates.
by Jeff Miller - 2 weeks ago

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Problems with CAPE: Data

The most popular stock valuation measure, Prof. Robert Shiller’s CAPE ratio, also uses data as far back as 1871. Let’s move beyond the standard criticisms, beginning with a long-term chart of the ratio.
by Jeff Miller - 3 weeks ago

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How to Spot a Good Survey: The Philly Fed example

Investors are consumers of economic data. If you are a wise consumer, you know what to emphasize and what to ignore. In this series on indicators I continue my effort to separate wheat from chaff.
by Jeff Miller - 1 month ago

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Positive signs from China

Friday's market got a little boost from signs of growth in China. The Daily Shot (part of my morning routine) has coverage. Here are a few key items.
by Jeff Miller - 1 month ago

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Some Contrarian Thoughts -- Based on Fundamentals

My game plan, which I described at the start of the year, is to own last year’s laggards.
by Jeff Miller - 1 month ago

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