About: Jeff Miller

Jeff Miller

"The Man Who Called Dow 20,000" --CNBC

Jeffrey Miller is a contributing analyst at FATRADER providing economic analysis as well as market forecasts. Through his years of experience in trading options, futures, and equities, as well as in quantitative modeling, Jeff has come to be regarded as an expert on economics, market reaction to news events, and computer-based trading.

Jeff is renowned as "The Man Who Called Dow 20,000," as CNBC referred to him in a December 2016 interview. The Dow at the time was just reaching the milestone Jeff predicted back in 2010 when the index was only at 10,000.

Jeff holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Michigan. A former college professor, he taught advanced research methods at the University of Wisconsin, where his quantitative modeling and analysis of tax policy helped inform state and local officials in Wisconsin for more than a decade.

Jeff started off in the financial business in 1987 as research director for a trading firm at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. He investigated anomalies in the standard option pricing models and developed new forecasting techniques. Merging these quantitative techniques with specific company analysis, Jeff also generated trading ideas from sell-side analyst reports.

In 1991 Jeff established a general research consultancy, undertaking projects in both financial futures and options with professional traders at all of the Chicago financial exchanges.

In 1998 he started NewArc Investments, Inc., where he currently manages both individual and institutional investments. He is also occasionally an expert witness in legal cases involving financial markets and hedging.

Jeff has authored a series of papers on investment management, describing both quantitative methods and those related to behavioral economics. A widely followed financial columnist, he has been featured on TheStreet's Real Money, Yahoo Finance, and Seeking Alpha, where he is consistently ranked among the top 3 contributors for Economics.

Story Archive

Reviewing Indicators – Citi Economic Surprise Index, Global PMIs, ECRI

PeriodicaIly I add an installment to my series on economic indicators. In these posts I combine important selection principles with examples of some of my conclusions.
By Jeff Miller

Setting the Bar Too High

The much-awaited trade news is about to be released. I expect almost everyone to become a critic.
By Jeff Miller

Political Tail Wagging

Art Cashin, the best source for opinion on the NYSE floor, opined yesterday that 200-300 points of the DJIA decline was because of Sen. Sanders' health issues. Apparently the logic goes that if Sanders were out of the race, Warren chances would improve. She is the candidate, rightly or wrongly, most feared by Wall Street.
By Jeff Miller

Confirmation Biases - Market Analysis on Oct 2nd, 2019

Everyone who has been "warning" (including those doing so for many years) are seizing on some one-month data points as confirmation. It is confirmation bias, because the same sources ignore the good economic news.
By Jeff Miller

This Week's Data: Implications for the Fed

This has been an interesting week for economic data. The general implication is hawkish for Fed policy and supportive of a shift in overall asset allocation. Let’s take a closer look.
By Jeff Miller

The Strong Long: Finding The Next Opportunity

In the 2000 bubble nearly all of my professional trader friends shorted the market -- sometimes repeatedly. I know only one who had a successful short; it worked mostly because of good guessing and an impulsive move.
By Jeff Miller

ISM Contraction - Market Analysis on Sep 3rd, 2019

Today's ISM manufacturing report dipped to 49.1, attracting plenty of attention since it is the first contraction in manufacturing in over three years.
By Jeff Miller

Current Strategy and Tactics

Here are some conclusions I have reached with a high degree of confidence on the macro picture, plus a few stock and sector ideas thrown in. 
By Jeff Miller

Causal Modeling for Current Economic Issues

Everyone in the investment world knows that correlation does not equal causation. That knowledge does not inoculate them against errors!
By Jeff Miller

Should We Worry About Mounting Debt?

While I am not troubled by individual and corporate debt (stories for another day) government debt is another matter.
By Jeff Miller

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