Macro Trends/Forecasts

Jeff Miller

"The Man Who Called Dow 20,000" --CNBC

Employment Report -- Early Take

My early look at the employment report suggests that, while good, it is not as good as the headline number suggests.  Also we must keep in mind the confidence interval of +/- 100K.  Household survey weaker.  These often diverge, but each provides information.  The HH survey is based upon people while the payroll jobs count jobs.  Some people work multiple jobs, for example, including both of the Uber drivers I had yesterday on my return trip from the NAAIM conference.  Labor force participation declined a bit contributing to the low unemployment rate.

Tim Duy, the leading Fed expert, says to get ready for some FedSpeak pondering rate increases. James Bullard (St. Louis Fed Pres) was just on CNBC saying that the Fed Funds rate was probably a little too high.

These reports always have some conflicting data, but you won't see that in mainstream news reports or the political discussions.  The GDP report (not as good as it seemed) was a typical example.

Labor market slack is declining.  There are few indications of wage inflation at the moment, but this shows that we'll see some eventually.

I'll have much more in my regular weekend update.

Jeff Miller provides Economic Analysis as well as Market Forecasts as one of the original contributing analysts at FATRADER. A quantitative modeling expert and former university professor who is the #1 Economics contributor at Seeking Alpha, Jeff is regarded as an expert on economics, market reaction to news events, and computer-based trading.
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