Macro Trends/Forecasts

Jeff Miller

"The Man Who Called Dow 20,000" --CNBC

ISM Contraction - Market Analysis on Sep 3rd, 2019

Today's ISM manufacturing report dipped to 49.1, attracting plenty of attention since it is the first contraction in manufacturing in over three years.  Most people do not realize that because of the declining role of manufacturing, negative readings still imply positive GDP.  The breakeven is 42.9. According to the ISM today's report, if annualized, implies real GDP growth of 1.8%. https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm?SSO=1 

The Atlanta GDP Now update shows a current rate of 1.7%.

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These are both below my "base case" of 2% GDP growth or a touch higher, but not recessionary.

Ace Fed watcher Tim Duy takes note of the impact of declining exports.  He concludes that this week's employment numbers will probably be more important to the Fed. https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/2019/09/03/no-manufacturing-bounce-yet/ 

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And this is just the start of a big week for data!

Jeff Miller provides Economic Analysis as well as Market Forecasts as one of the original contributing analysts at FATRADER. A quantitative modeling expert and former university professor who is the #1 Economics contributor at Seeking Alpha, Jeff is regarded as an expert on economics, market reaction to news events, and computer-based trading.
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