Today's ISM manufacturing report dipped to 49.1, attracting plenty of attention since it is the first contraction in manufacturing in over three years. Most people do not realize that because of the declining role of manufacturing, negative readings still imply positive GDP. The breakeven is 42.9. According to the ISM today's report, if annualized, implies real GDP growth of 1.8%. https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm?SSO=1
The Atlanta GDP Now update shows a current rate of 1.7%.
These are both below my "base case" of 2% GDP growth or a touch higher, but not recessionary.
Ace Fed watcher Tim Duy takes note of the impact of declining exports. He concludes that this week's employment numbers will probably be more important to the Fed. https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/2019/09/03/no-manufacturing-bounce-yet/
And this is just the start of a big week for data!