Macro Trends/Forecasts

Jeff Miller

"The Man Who Called Dow 20,000" --CNBC

Lessons from JOLTS

The JOLTS report is one of the most misunderstood releases.  Despite excellent explanations and technical notes from the BLS, most use it as a proxy for job creation.  JOLTS is more about labor market structure.  This can tell you both about the health of the economy and also tightness in the labor market.  Today's data represent information from the last business day of April.  There are many charts at the BLS site, but here are three that I regularly follow.

The number of people seeking jobs crossed over the number of openings in December of 2017.  This is one of the shorter BLS series, so no one knows how low this ratio can go.  Intuition suggests wage increases should be on the horizon.

The quit rate is important.  While there is always buzz about layoffs, the data show the consistent growth in voluntary separations.

The Beveridge Curve is an important indicator of expansion versus contraction.  The current position on the curve indicates extreme health.  It also shows possible structural change, as the entire curve has shifted higher.

Overall, this is a healthy report.

beveridge curve
beveridge curve
Jeff Miller provides Economic Analysis as well as Market Forecasts as one of the original contributing analysts at FATRADER. A quantitative modeling expert and former university professor who is the #1 Economics contributor at Seeking Alpha, Jeff is regarded as an expert on economics, market reaction to news events, and computer-based trading.
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