Macro Trends/Forecasts

Jeff Miller

"The Man Who Called Dow 20,000" --CNBC

The Expectations Game

In last week's WTWA I provided a table of key events and market expectations.  The economic reports proved to be solid and earnings OK.  Mr. Market digested the (expected) trade stories as well as the apparent end to the easing cycle.  Considering market reactions is a key factor in figuring out what outcomes are "baked in" to current prices.

The employment report, at first look, seems solid on all fronts.  I'll check out my "Reliably Bearish Commentators" list on Twitter to discover what those determined to worry have found in the details.

Especially important were the upward revisions to past months, putting the multi-month average back on a reasonable level -- maybe net gains of 175K or so allowing for the GM strike. 

As usual, we should keep in mind the margin of error of more than 100K.  And this sampling error is never "fixed" by the first round of revisions.

More to come...

Jeff Miller provides Economic Analysis as well as Market Forecasts as one of the original contributing analysts at FATRADER. A quantitative modeling expert and former university professor who is the #1 Economics contributor at Seeking Alpha, Jeff is regarded as an expert on economics, market reaction to news events, and computer-based trading.
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